College football · NFLTuesday, October 13, 2026
The Upset Report
2026 · What if

Simulate the rest of the season

Pick the winner of any game, flip results that already happened, or let the simulator play it out, and see who makes the College Football Playoff.

Games before week 7 keep their real results unless you flip them. From week 7 on, you pick or the dice decide.

Alabamayour national champion
–chance your picks all come true
73upsets in your season

Pick a winner anywhere to see the odds of your version of the season. Games nobody has decided go to the favorite. Playoff odds come from playing the rest out 1,000 times, with your results locked in.

Scenario editor

First round
Quarterfinals
Semifinals
Championship

Tap a team to send it through. Gold marks the winner of each game, red an underdog winner; the number under each seed is the chance to win that game. The top four seeds get a first-round bye. How the 12-team playoff works

First teams out: LSU, BYU, Houston, New Mexico.

Playoff race

  1. 1GeorgiaSEC · No. 1 seed9012–1+14.7…

    Record through week 7: 6–0 · title chance … · power rating +14.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Tennessee State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–3
    • Wk 2 · vs Western Kentucky · >99% to win, from the line · really won 70–20
    • Wk 3 · at Arkansas · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 4 · vs Oklahoma · 78% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 5 · vs Vanderbilt · 96% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 6 · at No. 6 Alabama · 43% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 7 · vs Auburn · 91% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida · 80% to win, from the line
    • Wk 10 · at No. 9 Ole Miss · 62% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 13 Missouri · 67% to win
    • Wk 12 · at South Carolina · 68% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Georgia Tech · 92% to win
  2. 2Notre DameFBS Independents · No. 2 seed9112–0+17.6…

    Record through week 7: 6–0 · title chance … · power rating +17.6

    • Wk 1 · vs Wisconsin · 92% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Rice · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–0
    • Wk 3 · vs Michigan State · 97% to win, from the line · really won 27–10
    • Wk 4 · at Purdue · 97% to win, from the line · really won 49–10
    • Wk 5 · at North Carolina · 92% to win, from the line · really won 37–26
    • Wk 6 · vs Stanford · >99% to win, from the line · really won 58–7
    • Wk 7 · at No. 8 BYU · 75% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs Navy · 90% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 3 Miami · 67% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs Boston College · 97% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 24 SMU · 88% to win, from the line
    • Wk 13 · at Syracuse · 86% to win
  3. 3Ohio StateBig Ten · No. 3 seed, champion9412–1+14.7…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +14.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Ball State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 56–3
    • Wk 2 · at No. 7 Texas · 43% to win, from the line · really lost 23–24
    • Wk 3 · vs Kent State · >99% to win, from the line · really won 59–3
    • Wk 4 · vs Illinois · 96% to win, from the line · really won 42–19
    • Wk 5 · at No. 17 Iowa · 83% to win, from the line · really won 31–14
    • Wk 6 · vs Maryland · 98% to win, from the line · really won 45–16
    • Wk 7 · at No. 5 Indiana · 59% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · at No. 19 USC · 69% to win, from the line
    • Wk 10 · vs Oregon · 66% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 25 Northwestern · 71% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Nebraska · 52% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Michigan · 82% to win, from the line
  4. 4UtahBig 12 · No. 4 seed, champion9213–0+11.4…

    Record through week 7: 5–0 · title chance … · power rating +11.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Idaho · >99% to win, from the line · really won 66–14
    • Wk 2 · vs Arkansas · 82% to win, from the line · really won 43–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Utah State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 33–0
    • Wk 4 · at Iowa State · 69% to win, from the line · really won 31–17
    • Wk 6 · vs Kansas · 85% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 7 · at Colorado · 85% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 20 Houston · 67% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · at Cincinnati · 73% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 8 BYU · 58% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · at Arizona · 54% to win
    • Wk 12 · at TCU · 67% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs West Virginia · 85% to win
  5. 5Texas TechBig 12 · No. 5 seed8712–1+9.7…

    Record through week 7: 5–0 · title chance … · power rating +9.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Abilene Christian · >99% to win, from the line · really won 33–10
    • Wk 2 · at Oregon State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 35–24
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 20 Houston · 69% to win, from the line · really won 28–26
    • Wk 4 · vs Sam Houston · 99% to win, from the line · really won 49–14
    • Wk 5 · at Colorado · 82% to win, from the line · really won 29–7
    • Wk 7 · vs Arizona State · 83% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at Cincinnati · 69% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Arizona · 62% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs West Virginia · 82% to win
    • Wk 11 · at No. 18 Oklahoma State · 85% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · at Baylor · 52% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs TCU · 86% to win, from the line
  6. 6IndianaBig Ten · No. 6 seed8211–2+13.0…

    Record through week 7: 6–0 · title chance … · power rating +13.0

    • Wk 1 · vs North Texas · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–16
    • Wk 2 · vs Howard · >99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 3 · vs Western Kentucky · >99% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 4 · vs No. 25 Northwestern · 91% to win, from the line · really won 29–23
    • Wk 5 · at Rutgers · 95% to win, from the line · really won 47–15
    • Wk 6 · at Nebraska · 74% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 41% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at Michigan · 66% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs Minnesota · 87% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 19 USC · 75% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · at Washington · 80% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Purdue · 79% to win
  7. 7MiamiACC · No. 7 seed, champion8712–1+13.7…

    Record through week 7: 5–0 · title chance … · power rating +13.7

    • Wk 1 · at Stanford · 95% to win, from the line · really won 45–6
    • Wk 2 · vs Florida A&M · >99% to win, from the line · really won 77–7
    • Wk 3 · at No. 21 Wake Forest · 91% to win, from the line · really won 33–20
    • Wk 4 · vs Central Michigan · >99% to win, from the line · really won 52–3
    • Wk 5 · at Clemson · 83% to win, from the line · really won 41–13
    • Wk 7 · vs Florida State · 92% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs Pittsburgh · 75% to win
    • Wk 9 · at North Carolina · 70% to win
    • Wk 10 · at No. 2 Notre Dame · 33% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs Duke · 92% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · vs Virginia Tech · 86% to win, from the line
    • Wk 13 · vs Boston College · 94% to win
  8. 8TexasSEC · No. 8 seed8510–2+11.2…

    Record through week 7: 4–1 · title chance … · power rating +11.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Texas State · 98% to win, from the line · really won 59–7
    • Wk 2 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 57% to win, from the line · really won 24–23
    • Wk 3 · vs UTSA · 98% to win, from the line · really won 30–6
    • Wk 4 · at No. 14 Tennessee · 64% to win, from the line · really won 20–17
    • Wk 6 · vs Oklahoma · 69% to win, from the line · really lost 24–27
    • Wk 7 · vs Florida · 76% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs No. 9 Ole Miss · 72% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 16 Mississippi State · 63% to win
    • Wk 10 · at No. 13 Missouri · 45% to win
    • Wk 11 · at No. 22 LSU · 57% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · vs Arkansas · 89% to win
    • Wk 13 · at Texas A&M · 57% to win, from the line
  9. 9AlabamaSEC · No. 9 seed, champion8711–2+19.5…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +19.5

    • Wk 1 · vs East Carolina · 97% to win, from the line · really won 48–10
    • Wk 2 · at No. 15 Kentucky · 74% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 3 · vs Florida State · 89% to win, from the line · really won 50–36
    • Wk 4 · vs South Carolina · 80% to win, from the line · really won 49–18
    • Wk 5 · at No. 16 Mississippi State · 64% to win, from the line · really won 56–23
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 1 Georgia · 57% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 7 · at No. 14 Tennessee · 72% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs Texas A&M · 57% to win, from the line
    • Wk 10 · at No. 22 LSU · 41% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · at Vanderbilt · 93% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs Chattanooga · >99% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Auburn · 75% to win, from the line
  10. 10Wake ForestACC · No. 10 seed7811–2+8.2…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Akron · 97% to win, from the line · really won 38–16
    • Wk 2 · at Purdue · 57% to win, from the line · really won 38–36
    • Wk 3 · vs No. 3 Miami · 9% to win, from the line · really lost 20–33
    • Wk 4 · at Louisville · 22% to win, from the line · really won 30–27
    • Wk 5 · vs Stanford · 83% to win, from the line · really won 57–3
    • Wk 6 · at NC State · 61% to win, from the line · really won 38–14
    • Wk 7 · at California · 74% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs Virginia · 75% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs Merrimack · 99% to win
    • Wk 11 · at No. 24 SMU · 63% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Georgia Tech · 74% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Duke · 66% to win
  11. 11MissouriSEC · No. 11 seed749–3+10.7…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +10.7

    • Wk 1 · vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff · >99% to win, from the line · really won 54–14
    • Wk 2 · at Kansas · 61% to win, from the line · really won 38–21
    • Wk 3 · vs Troy · 96% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
    • Wk 4 · at No. 16 Mississippi State · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 24–31
    • Wk 5 · vs Florida · 36% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 6 · vs Texas A&M · 62% to win, from the line · really won 27–6
    • Wk 7 · at No. 9 Ole Miss · 35% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · at Arkansas · 81% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 7 Texas · 55% to win
    • Wk 11 · at No. 1 Georgia · 33% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 15 Kentucky · 68% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Oklahoma · 72% to win
  12. 12LSUSEC769–3+12.1…

    Record through week 7: 4–2 · title chance … · power rating +12.1

    • Wk 1 · vs Clemson · 75% to win, from the line · really won 51–10
    • Wk 2 · vs Louisiana Tech · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–14
    • Wk 3 · at No. 9 Ole Miss · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 24–32
    • Wk 4 · vs Texas A&M · 72% to win, from the line · really won 35–6
    • Wk 5 · vs McNeese · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–14
    • Wk 6 · at No. 15 Kentucky · 74% to win, from the line · really lost 34–35
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 16 Mississippi State · 83% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at Auburn · 67% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs No. 6 Alabama · 59% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 7 Texas · 43% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · at No. 14 Tennessee · 54% to win, from the line
    • Wk 13 · at Arkansas · 83% to win
  13. 13Boise StatePac-12 · No. 12 seed, Group of 6 bid7410–2+7.3…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.3

    • Wk 1 · at Oregon · 5% to win, from the line · really lost 27–34
    • Wk 2 · vs Memphis · 74% to win, from the line · really won 38–20
    • Wk 3 · vs South Dakota · 97% to win, from the line · really won 38–24
    • Wk 4 · at Western Michigan · 72% to win, from the line · really won 32–7
    • Wk 5 · vs Utah State · 90% to win, from the line · really won 37–18
    • Wk 6 · at Fresno State · 72% to win, from the line · really won 38–31
    • Wk 8 · at Washington State · 80% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Texas State · 78% to win
    • Wk 10 · at Colorado State · 72% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs Oregon State · 56% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs San Diego State · 87% to win
  14. 14BYUBig 128010–2+8.8…

    Record through week 7: 5–0 · title chance … · power rating +8.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Utah Tech · >99% to win, from the line · really won 63–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Arizona · 67% to win, from the line · really won 28–17
    • Wk 3 · at Colorado State · 88% to win, from the line · really won 41–23
    • Wk 5 · at TCU · 64% to win, from the line · really won 17–10
    • Wk 6 · vs Iowa State · 78% to win, from the line · really won 24–10
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 2 Notre Dame · 25% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at UCF · 58% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Arizona State · 85% to win
    • Wk 10 · at No. 11 Utah · 42% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · vs Baylor · 63% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Kansas · 66% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Cincinnati · 78% to win
  15. 15HoustonBig 127910–2+10.2…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +10.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Oregon State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 33–20
    • Wk 2 · vs Southern · >99% to win, from the line · really won 77–6
    • Wk 3 · at No. 10 Texas Tech · 31% to win, from the line · really lost 26–28
    • Wk 4 · at Georgia Southern · 88% to win, from the line · really won 42–28
    • Wk 5 · vs UCF · 76% to win, from the line · really won 27–17
    • Wk 6 · at Kansas State · 43% to win, from the line · really won 35–16
    • Wk 7 · vs No. 18 Oklahoma State · 62% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at No. 11 Utah · 33% to win, from the line
    • Wk 10 · vs Cincinnati · 81% to win
    • Wk 11 · at Colorado · 79% to win
    • Wk 12 · at West Virginia · 74% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Baylor · 66% to win
  16. 16New MexicoMountain West7812–1+8.2…

    Record through week 7: 4–1 · title chance … · power rating +8.2

    • Wk 1 · vs Central Michigan · 78% to win, from the line · really won 38–7
    • Wk 2 · vs Mercyhurst · >99% to win, from the line · really won 70–7
    • Wk 3 · at Oklahoma · 8% to win, from the line · really lost 6–14
    • Wk 4 · at New Mexico State · 78% to win, from the line · really won 42–18
    • Wk 5 · vs UTEP · 94% to win, from the line · really won 61–7
    • Wk 7 · at Hawai'i · 83% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs North Dakota State · 59% to win
    • Wk 9 · at San José State · 80% to win
    • Wk 10 · at Nevada · 75% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs UNLV · 74% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Wyoming · 85% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Air Force · 72% to win
  17. 17UCLABig Ten8311–1+11.8…

    Record through week 7: 5–0 · title chance … · power rating +11.8

    • Wk 1 · at California · 57% to win, from the line · really won 45–24
    • Wk 2 · vs San Diego State · 82% to win, from the line · really won 28–10
    • Wk 3 · vs Purdue · 82% to win, from the line · really won 52–38
    • Wk 4 · at Maryland · 57% to win, from the line · really won 54–3
    • Wk 6 · at Oregon · 25% to win, from the line · really won 17–15
    • Wk 7 · vs Wisconsin · 57% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs Michigan State · 83% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Nevada · 89% to win
    • Wk 10 · at Minnesota · 76% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs Illinois · 83% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Michigan · 67% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs No. 19 USC · 24% to win, from the line
  18. 18James MadisonSun Belt8413–0+7.5…

    Record through week 7: 6–0 · title chance … · power rating +7.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Liberty · 66% to win, from the line · really won 20–13
    • Wk 2 · vs Wagner · >99% to win, from the line · really won 87–3
    • Wk 3 · at San Diego State · 42% to win, from the line · really won 26–13
    • Wk 4 · at Old Dominion · 68% to win, from the line · really won 46–20
    • Wk 5 · vs Marshall · 83% to win, from the line · really won 45–17
    • Wk 6 · at Georgia Southern · 68% to win, from the line · really won 27–24
    • Wk 7 · vs Georgia State · 80% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at App State · 75% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Troy · 81% to win
    • Wk 10 · at Southern Miss · 85% to win
    • Wk 11 · at UConn · 64% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Coastal Carolina · 85% to win
  19. 19MemphisAmerican Athletic7912–1+4.4…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +4.4

    • Wk 1 · at UNLV · 38% to win, from the line · really won 27–21
    • Wk 1 · vs Arkansas State · 76% to win, from the line · really won 42–24
    • Wk 2 · at No. 23 Boise State · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 20–38
    • Wk 3 · vs UT Martin · 99% to win, from the line · really won 45–21
    • Wk 5 · at Charlotte · 89% to win, from the line · really won 59–8
    • Wk 6 · vs UAB · 85% to win, from the line · really won 38–13
    • Wk 7 · at Tulane · 68% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · vs East Carolina · 71% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Army · 70% to win
    • Wk 11 · at South Florida · 54% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Navy · 59% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Temple · 77% to win
  20. 20North Dakota StateMountain West6310–3+7.3…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.3

    • Wk 1 · vs Jacksonville State · 67% to win, from the line · really won 33–7
    • Wk 1 · vs Fordham · >99% to win, from the line · really won 38–0
    • Wk 2 · at Air Force · 54% to win, from the line · really won 38–32
    • Wk 3 · at Sacramento State · 96% to win, from the line · really won 31–10
    • Wk 5 · vs Wyoming · 88% to win, from the line · really won 28–0
    • Wk 6 · at UNLV · 58% to win, from the line · really lost 7–13
    • Wk 7 · vs Nevada · 85% to win, from the line
    • Wk 8 · at New Mexico · 41% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs UTEP · 94% to win
    • Wk 11 · at Hawai'i · 85% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs Northern Illinois · 95% to win
    • Wk 13 · at San José State · 78% to win
  21. 21NebraskaBig Ten699–3+11.4…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +11.4

    • Wk 1 · vs Ohio · 94% to win, from the line · really won 49–21
    • Wk 2 · vs Bowling Green · 98% to win, from the line · really won 56–7
    • Wk 3 · vs North Dakota · 97% to win, from the line · really won 34–7
    • Wk 4 · at Michigan State · 66% to win, from the line · really won 31–13
    • Wk 5 · vs Maryland · 85% to win, from the line · really won 48–23
    • Wk 6 · vs No. 5 Indiana · 26% to win, from the line · really lost 17–20
    • Wk 7 · at Oregon · 31% to win, from the line
    • Wk 9 · vs Washington · 86% to win
    • Wk 10 · at Illinois · 72% to win
    • Wk 11 · at Rutgers · 85% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 48% to win
    • Wk 13 · at No. 17 Iowa · 61% to win
  22. 22LibertyConference USA7512–1+5.0…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +5.0

    • Wk 1 · at James Madison · 35% to win, from the line · really lost 13–20
    • Wk 2 · vs Gardner-Webb · 97% to win, from the line · really won 24–23
    • Wk 3 · vs Ball State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 51–15
    • Wk 4 · at Coastal Carolina · 57% to win, from the line · really won 34–17
    • Wk 5 · at Delaware · 68% to win, from the line · really won 30–14
    • Wk 6 · vs Sam Houston · 82% to win, from the line · really won 35–3
    • Wk 8 · at Kennesaw State · 71% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Florida International · 72% to win
    • Wk 10 · at New Mexico State · 73% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs Middle Tennessee · 84% to win
    • Wk 12 · vs Western Kentucky · 87% to win
    • Wk 13 · at Missouri State · 81% to win
  23. 23USCBig Ten688–4+7.0…

    Record through week 7: 6–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.0

    • Wk 1 · vs San José State · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–26
    • Wk 1 · vs Fresno State · 92% to win, from the line · really won 39–0
    • Wk 2 · vs Louisiana · 98% to win, from the line · really won 49–30
    • Wk 3 · at Rutgers · 92% to win, from the line · really won 42–35
    • Wk 4 · vs Oregon · 41% to win, from the line · really lost 27–41
    • Wk 5 · vs Washington · 69% to win, from the line · really won 25–21
    • Wk 6 · at Penn State · 54% to win, from the line · really won 31–23
    • Wk 8 · at Wisconsin · 43% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 31% to win, from the line
    • Wk 11 · at No. 5 Indiana · 25% to win, from the line
    • Wk 12 · vs Maryland · 78% to win
    • Wk 13 · at No. 12 UCLA · 76% to win, from the line
  24. 24IowaBig Ten729–3+4.8…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +4.8

    • Wk 1 · vs Northern Illinois · 98% to win, from the line · really won 40–0
    • Wk 2 · vs Iowa State · 83% to win, from the line · really won 16–13
    • Wk 3 · vs Northern Iowa · 99% to win, from the line · really won 55–0
    • Wk 4 · at Michigan · 38% to win, from the line · really won 20–19
    • Wk 5 · vs No. 4 Ohio State · 17% to win, from the line · really lost 14–31
    • Wk 6 · at Washington · 42% to win, from the line · really won 41–24
    • Wk 8 · at Minnesota · 60% to win
    • Wk 9 · vs Wisconsin · 51% to win
    • Wk 10 · at No. 25 Northwestern · 33% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs Purdue · 61% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Illinois · 55% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Nebraska · 39% to win
  25. 25ArizonaBig 12689–3+7.5…

    Record through week 7: 5–1 · title chance … · power rating +7.5

    • Wk 1 · vs Northern Arizona · 99% to win, from the line · really won 35–7
    • Wk 2 · at No. 8 BYU · 33% to win, from the line · really lost 17–28
    • Wk 3 · vs Northern Illinois · 99% to win, from the line · really won 42–17
    • Wk 4 · at Washington State · 78% to win, from the line · really won 34–24
    • Wk 5 · vs Cincinnati · 68% to win, from the line · really won 34–7
    • Wk 6 · at West Virginia · 59% to win, from the line · really won 52–31
    • Wk 8 · vs Iowa State · 70% to win
    • Wk 9 · at No. 10 Texas Tech · 38% to win
    • Wk 10 · vs TCU · 70% to win
    • Wk 11 · vs No. 11 Utah · 46% to win
    • Wk 12 · at Kansas State · 59% to win
    • Wk 13 · vs Arizona State · 62% to win, from the line

Ranked by the committee’s final ranking in your season. Playoff resume rates what a team did, from 0 to 99: wins over good teams lift it and losses to weak ones sink it, measured against what a playoff-bubble team would do with the same schedule. Projected record has the favorite winning every game nobody has decided, title game included. Power rating is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. Make playoff is the share of 1,000 simulated seasons that put the team in the field. Tap a team to see and change its games.

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Records are through week 7 and change as you pick or sim. Tap a team to make it win. Percentages are each team’s chance to win, from the betting line when there is one. Red means the underdog wins.

Top 25

After week 6Real AP poll
  1. 1▲1
  2. 2▲1
  3. 3▲1
  4. 4▲1
  5. 5▲2
  6. 6
  7. 7▼6
  8. 8
  9. 9
  10. 10▲1
  11. 11▲1
  12. 12▲9
  13. 13▲1
  14. 14▲1
  15. 15new
  16. 16▲1
  17. 17▲3
  18. 18
  19. 19
  20. 20▲2
  21. 21new
  22. 22▼12
  23. 23
  24. 24
  25. 25new

This is the ranking going into the week you’re picking, and it moves with the week arrows. The real AP poll and committee ranking show until the first week that goes differently from real life. After that we project them: every result moves teams the way real voters and the committee have from 2014 to 2025. A ranked team that loses to an unranked one drops about eight spots and falls out more often than not; an unranked team that beats a top-10 team can jump straight in. The committee’s last ranking picks your playoff field.

Conference title games

  • SEC
  • Big Ten
  • ACC
  • Big 12
  • American Athletic
  • Conference USA
  • Mid-American
  • Mountain West
  • Pac-12
  • Sun Belt