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The Upset Report
NFL · 2025 · Week 18 · Sunday, January 4, 2026

Las Vegas Raiders beat Kansas City Chiefs, 14–12

The Raiders closed as 3.5-point underdogs and won outright. The betting market gave them a 34% chance.

Final14–12
Upset size3.5
Chance to win34%
Rank in 202549th of 52

It was the 4th-biggest of 4 NFL upsets in 2025 Week 18, and the 49th-biggest of the 2025 season. It was Las Vegas Raiders's only upset win of 2025.

Other NFL upsets in 2025 Week 18

  1. 9.5-point underdog21% to winRecap
    Upset size9.5
  2. 4.5-point underdog34% to winRecap
    Upset size4.5
  3. 3.5-point underdog38% to winRecap
    Upset size3.5

More: Las Vegas Raiders upsets · Kansas City Chiefs upsets · all Week 18 upsets · how upset size works